Manny’s No. 1 in this survey
Nestor Mata
AS the presidential race draws toward its end thirteen days from now, Manny Villar is leading his rivals in the latest survey conducted by the Campaigns & Images Group (C&IG) from April 1 to 5.
This survey shows that Villar is in first place with 32 percent, ahead by nine percentage points in contrast to his closest rival, Noynoy Aquino, who is in second place with 23 percent. He is followed by Gibo Teodoro, the Arroyo administration’s candidate, with 18 percent, who dislodged Joseph “Erap” Estrada from third place.
This survey by C&IG, commissioned not by politicians or political groups but by British and US-based companies doing business in this country, showed that Villar is “favored to win 3.1 in 10 Filipinos.”
The survey results also showed that Villar’s General Acceptability Rating (GAR) has gone up to 83 percent — representing 33 percent in Preferential Preference Rating and 50 percent in governance capability.
“Aquino’s slide between December and March 27, 2010,” according to the C&IG’s research arm Tools and Strategy Report, “had been largely attributed to widespread perception by the public about his lack of management experience and leadership capability, on the one hand, and dependence on the legacy of his parents, on the other.”
The survey results came in the wake of the political “migrations” or “defections” by political leaders and followers to either the NP or the LP or the Lakas-Kampi.
These political migrants or defectors probably perceived either one of the three presidential candidates as the most likely winner.
And perhaps their perception has been influenced by surveys by the Social Weather Stations, the Pulse Asia, and the Campaigns & Images Group.
The SWS and Pulse Asia based the results of their surveys solely on Metro Manila and the National Capitol Region cross-section sampling and used this as a random base for nationwide analysis. They have sampled 2,000 or more respondents and showed Aquino in a tight contest with Villar.
The C&IG conducted its three surveys, with a spread of 5,100 samples nationwide, and determined registered voters’ presidential preferences in suburban, industrial and agricultural sectors.
Thus, the C&IG came out with survey results completely, and strikingly, different from those conducted by SWS and Pulse Asia last year and even before the official campaign started up to March this year.
The C&IG said Villar is the “first choice” as presidential candidate of registered voters in all three regions, Luzon, Mindanao and Visayas, and in practically all three Services, Industrial and Agriculture Sectors, nationwide.
In the three regions, Villar got 32 percent (18 percent in Luzon, 10 percent in Mindanao and 4 percent in Visayas); Aquino 23 percent (14 percent in Luzon, 6 percent in Mindanao, and 3 percent in Visayas); and Teodoro 18 percent (10 percent in Luzon, 5 percent in Mindanao and 3 percent in Visayas). Out of the 5,100 individuals, 4,947 responded.
In the Services Sector, with 27.642 million voters nationwide, Villar maintained a formidable overall presence with a Presidential Preference Rating (PPR) of 29 percent, His ascendancy is even distributed throughout : 9 percent in urban; 4percent in suburban; 4 percent rural; and 8 percent overseas subsectors.
Villar was followed by Teodoro with 17 percent in PPR; maintaining a good following with 7 percent in urban, 4 percent suburban, 2 percent rural, and 4 percent overseas sub-sectors. And Aquino got 14 percent in PPR; 7 percent urban, 3 percent subburban 14 percent, 2 percent rural, and 2 percent overseas sectors.
In the Industrial Sector, with 15.76 million voters nationwide, Villar retained the top rank with 35 percent, Teodoro overtook Aquino to take place with PPR of 28 percent. And Aquino got 24 percent PPR.
In the Agriculture Sector, with 7.6 million voters nationwide, Villar got 17 percent, one percent less than Teodoro’s 18 percent, and Aquino 5 percent.
The differences between the results of the C&IG survey and that of the SWS and Pulse Asia stemmed from statistical samples that were obtained in the National Capital Region and used as a random base for nationwide analysis or what pollsters call extrapolation.
The C&IG’s national tracking poll has become the most reliable to outsiders or foreign observers to use in understanding the sentiments, thoughts, and aspirations of the Filipino people regarding their choices of presidential candidates and other officials.
Of course, presidential preferences could still change even in the short run up to balloting time, much depending on the communication strategy, messaging, choice of media to win the hearts and
minds of voters, even unconventional campaign methods, and certainly by the voters’ perception of who is the more popular and well-prepared Presidential candidate.
And so, who of the three leading Presidential aspirants will be the likely winner to take over after Gloria Macapagal Arroyo steps down?
***
Shouts and whispers. In Manila’s gabfest, the talk is about campaign spending.
The Noynoy Aquino camp has accused Manny Villar of spending too much for the campaign. Villar has answered that he funds his own campaign. How about Aquino?
This has prompted one media political pundit to wonder who is funding Aquino’s campaign?
Indeed, of all the presidential aspirants, only Aquino has no visible means of campaign support, and yet he has been outspending almost everyone in the campaign that calls for massive r TV and radio commercials, billboards, posters, rallies, and even for such below-the-line methods like the text messaging and the Internet by his LP black propagandists. And he has never once declared who are the big spenders of his bid to win the presidency.
Until Aquino tells the truth about who has sunk how much into his campaign, people will continue to doubt his promises of stamping out corruption!
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May 4th, 2010 01:20
Election 2010 draws near. Survey’s are not important. The Election’s success is the most important thing that should not be neglected.
May 6th, 2010 08:23
May the best man win – that is Villar!